How many paths could your life have taken?

Why is this image meaningful?

The image above, shared by Tim Urban, is a summary of the following key concepts, most of which I adhere to. In this entry, I attempt to explain each of their place in the image, as well as their relevance in a more detailed fashion.

The Butterfly Effect

The Butterfly Effect is fairly well-known to pop culture. There's even a scene in Doctor Strange (2016) mildly referring to it.

If you didn't catch either reference, here's a summary. The effect gets its name from the idea that a butterfly flapping its wings in one part of the world could, through a long chain of events, lead to a hurricane in another part of the world.

That explanation never really made sense to me, so let's talk about burnt toast instead.

Imagine you've made a tiny decision that led to you burning the toast in your toaster. You're now 5 minutes late to work, and as you drive to the office, you see a car crash on your way.

Had your toast not been burnt, there's a chance you could have been a part of that crash.

Small Changes --> Huge Consequences.

(Also, this is mentioned in every time travel movie ever.)

In real life, we notice the butterfly effect only during somewhat larger decisions.

• What if I chose the other high school?
• What if I asked that girl out?

The Butterfly Effect is the reason why the paths diverge so much. Without it, there would be no anxiety about the future, nor any particular guilt about pathways you've lost in the past.

The End of History Illusion

Do you remember something you did, maybe a year, decade, or forever ago that you would never do today? Maybe it was a joke you made or a shirt you wore, but what's important to understand is that this embarassment is a sign that you have grown as a person.

The End of History Illusion simply describes the phenomenon where we think that this growth is always in our past. This is not the case. Teenagers and senior citizens alike underestimate how much their personality and tastes will change in the years to come.

Going back to the paths on the photo, by seeing past the illusion we're able to dismiss the idea that as we grow older, the number of paths available to us decreases, either in quality or quantity.

At any point in our lives, whether obvious or not, there is significant possibility for change.

In University:

• Challenging your perspectives by joining the drama club instead of the math club (positive)
• Believing that your high school study habits will be enough, and that there is no further growth to be had (negative)

Note that this change can be both positive and negative. Resting on your laurels is in itself a negative change. The End of History illusion shows us that there is no point in which future development experiences signifcant (enough) diminishing returns. There are always more paths available.

Application: The Surface Area of Luck

work in progress : )